Monday, May 17, 2010

Malthusian traps -- jobs

Jobs are in a Malthusian trap. Well, not so much right now, but over the long-term,
if you want to predict how many jobs the economy will create in the next two decades, I'd steer you to a demographic model. How many more people will want to be in the work force in 20 years than there are now? That's about how many jobs will be created.
Jobs, then, are constrained by the scarce resource of workers.

Most creatures in world history are and have been in Malthusian traps, with occasional exceptions. Immediately after a mass die-out, there will be fewer limitations on growth, supposing that an animal's food supply is returning more explosively than the animal is. Similarly, there has been a mass die-off of jobs in the past couple years, and so from a short-term perspective it might be reasonable to regard jobs as being free to grow as quickly as they can ... reproduce. Well, I'm not sure how useful the analogy really was, anyway.

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